Memory shortage in 2026: why prices will not drop before 2028

309 euros for a 32GB DDR5 kit. This is the minimum price in April 2026 on LDLC and Amazon.fr, for basic 6000 MHz CL30. A year ago, the same kit was priced at 70-90 euros. As for SSD, a 1TB NVMe is around 250 dollars from major brands. We are far from the mark.

And no, this is not a temporary peak. Gartner, Counterpoint Research, TrendForce — all analysts agree: the shortage of DRAM and NAND Flash memory will last until at least 2028. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have other priorities than your RAM stick, and the factories capable of changing the situation do not exist yet.

We will dissect what is really happening, why it escalated so quickly, and above all what you can concretely do to not blow your PC budget into thin air.

The problem can be summed up in one sentence: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron manufacture over 90% of the world's DRAM. And for the past two years, these three have been massively redirecting their production lines towards the HBM memory (High Bandwidth Memory) — the ultra-fast chips demanded by Nvidia, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI's artificial intelligence servers.

Why? Because margins on HBM are ten times higher than those of traditional DRAM. SK Hynix has redirected 30% of its 2026 investments — around $20 billion — towards HBM3E and future HBM4. When you're a manufacturer and data centers beg you to produce faster at a high price, you won't prioritize DDR5 kits for gamers.

Michael Dell himself put it in numbers: the total demand for memory for AI infrastructures is multiplied by about 625. Six hundred twenty-five. It's not a typo.

Result: conventional memory - the one that equips your PC, your smartphone, your car - is taking a back seat. The supply contracted as early as the fall of 2025, and since then it's been a downward spiral.

Instead of beating around the bush, here's what it looks like concretely. The contractual prices of DRAM have been multiplied by 4 to 4.5 in nine months The NAND Flash follows the same trajectory with increases of 70 to 90% per quarter.

Memory now represents about 35% of the cost of a PC, compared to 15-18% before the crisis. For entry-level smartphones, we are going from 20% to potentially 40% of the manufacturing cost by mid-2026. You see the problem.

And in the second quarter of 2026, Ginjfo and TrendForce analysts are still forecasting an increase of +58 to 63% for conventional DRAM. For some SLC and MLC memories, we are talking about increases of 400 to 500%. In short, we have not hit rock bottom.

One could say to oneself: "Ok, manufacturers see the demand, they will build factories." That's exactly what's happening. Except that building a semiconductor fab is not like setting up a Quechua tent.

According to Counterpoint Research, resolving this shortage would require a annual production growth of 12% by 2027. Current industrial plans? They only provide for 7.5%. The gap is huge, and it is not bridged with goodwill.

Here is the actual schedule of new capabilities:

• Samsung — fourth Pyeongtaek plant activated in 2026, but real ramp-up in 2027. Fifth fab dedicated to HBM: not before 2028.
• SK Hynix — a line in Cheongju launched in February 2026. This is the only tangible addition this year.
• Micron — HBM production in Idaho and Singapore in 2027. Japanese plant in Hiroshima cruising in 2028.

Mr. Hwang, research director at Counterpoint, is blunt: the supply-demand balance will not normalize until 2028. And even then, suppliers will only cover 60% of global demand for DRAM. By 2027, it's even worse.

Gartner has made projections and they are not pleasing anyone: the combined increase in DRAM + SSD could reach 130% by the end of 2026 Direct translation: PCs will cost 17% more, smartphones 13% more. The segment of laptops under 500 euros could completely disappear by 2028.

IDC predicts a 13% drop in global smartphone sales in 2026. Lenovo, Acer, and HP are already passing on the increases. And it's not just consumer electronics: automakers are also struggling to secure their memory supplies, because yes, your modern car needs DRAM.

On the gamer PC side, the finding is brutal. A basic setup now costs around 1,269 euros — not exactly the "500 euro gamer PC" everyone dreams of. The memory budget alone can represent 300 to 600 euros between RAM and SSD.

Well, now that we've really dampened the mood, let's talk solutions. Because yes, you still need RAM and storage for your machine.

The sweet spot right now: 32 GB (2x16 GB) DDR5-6000 MHz CL30 or CL36 This is the optimal profile for recent Intel and AMD platforms. Below 320-340 euros, it's an acceptable deal given the context. Beyond 6400 MHz, the performance difference no longer justifies the extra cost — unless you are doing serious overclocking.

If your budget is tight, 16GB is still enough for pure gaming. And DDR4 is still viable: you can find 32GB kits between 150 and 210 euros. Your old Ryzen 5 5600 with DDR4 still runs very well in 2026 - it's not the time to change everything.

Prefer Gen4 over Gen5. The performance difference in gaming is almost zero, and the price difference is massive. A good Gen4 1TB SSD under 140 euros is a decent deal in April 2026. For mass storage, a 4TB HDD for 80-100 euros remains unbeatable — not glamorous, but effective.

Also consider the second-hand market. SSDs do not wear out as people think — a second-hand Samsung 970 Evo Plus or WD Black SN770 with 80% remaining endurance is a deal.

• Don't wait for "it to drop" — it won't drop before the end of 2027 at best. If you need RAM or an SSD now, buy now.
• Compare prices daily — stocks fluctuate and some resellers adjust prices several times a week. Price alerts on DropReference, Idealo, or Keepa are your best friends.
• Avoid unnecessary panic buying — buy three DDR5 kits "just in case" is scalping. Buy what you need, no more.
• Monitor flash sales — Amazon Prime Day, LDLC sales, French Days. Stocks are going fast but deals still exist.

Let's be realistic. Here are the three scenarios that analysts are considering:

Optimistic scenario: the new capacities of Samsung and Micron enter production in mid-2027. Prices start to drop in Q3 2027, and we reach "acceptable" levels — not those of 2024, but better than today — in 2028. This is Gartner's scenario.

Median scenario: the AI demand continues to grow faster than expected. New factories are producing, but HBM is absorbing most of it. Price plateau in 2027, slight relaxation in 2028. Frandroid and Cowcotland lean towards this scenario — and frankly, it's the most likely.

Pessimistic scenario: Counterpoint Research does not rule it out - the shortage could continue until 2030 if the physical obstacles to ramping up are confirmed and if AI continues to consume everything. In this case, we will have to get used to structurally high memory prices. Affordable DDR5 would be over.

The three global manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) are redirecting their capacities towards HBM memory for artificial intelligence. Conventional DRAM is taking a back seat, the supply has contracted, and prices have multiplied by 3 to 4 in less than a year.

Not before the end of 2027 at the earliest, and a return to "normal" levels is not expected before 2028. Samsung and Micron's new factories will only reach full capacity by this date.

Yes, if you already have a DDR4 platform (Ryzen 5000, Intel 12th/13th gen). 32GB DDR4 kits range from 150 to 210 euros, which is much cheaper than DDR5 with almost equivalent gaming performance. It's not the time to switch to DDR5 just for the sake of it.

Yes. NAND Flash contracts still anticipate +70 to 90% growth per quarter in H1 2026. High-end Gen5 SSDs are the most affected. Gen4 remains more affordable and is more than sufficient for gaming.

If you need memory or storage now, buy. Prices will not drop in the next 12 months. Waiting will cost you more. However, do not hold excessive stock — buy what you need.

The memory crisis is not a passing heat stroke. It is a structural realignment of the entire semiconductor industry towards AI, and traditional consumers are collateral damage. Prices have tripled, factories are not keeping up, and Gartner as well as Counterpoint do not see a way out of the crisis before 2028.

Concretely: buy smart, compare prices, aim for the sweet spot (DDR5-6000, Gen4 SSD), and forget about waiting for a miraculous drop. It won't come this year.